After Pandemic

Assuming there is a future, and it’s only the end of the world as we know it (that song is stuck in my head), how will things change? Politico Magazine posted a survey of over thirty professors, authors and other big thinkers recently (19-Mar-2020): Coronavirus Will Change the World Permanently. Here’s How. Below is a summary of their predictions in several categories for a post-pandemic world, some good, some bad, some ugly, some overlapping. First, I’d recommend reading my previous, shorter post, During Pandemic, before diving into this one. Second, a disclaimer: I am not predicting or even espousing all of these, but merely summarizing and commenting on the prognostication of others’ crystal balls. Now, let us gaze into to the future…

Community

1. Personal becomes dangerous
   • Georgetown Prof. Tannen predicts that after seeing the risk of touching strange things and crowds (don’t touch strangers, kids), we may not easily resume shaking hands, touching public surfaces and faces (especially strangers’ faces), or ignoring basic hygiene like routinely washing & disinfecting our hands (apparently no one did that before, judging from empty shelves at CVS).
   • Virtual meetings will be even more popular, as distance feels safer (and saves money on travel).
2. New patriotism
   • Villanova Prof. Schrad hopes that battling on microbiological front lines will make medical professionals our heroes, risking and sacrificing their health and lives for ours.
   • Patriotism can mean supporting community health as much as fighting overseas.
3. Less polarization
   • Columbia Prof. Coleman suggests (dreams?) that the societal shock of suffering mass pain and death, and eventually conquering this common enemy, will finally move us toward national solidarity and functionality.
   • I like silver linings, Doc, but if 9/11 and the Great Recession didn’t create lasting unity, will this shock be big enough? (Then again, a couple months of continuous “family time” will stress out many.)
4. Return of serious experts
   • US Naval War College Prof. Nichols believes our society has been less serious recently due to peace (at home), money, and love of consumer tech/toys (iPhone X or 11?!).
   • Some politicians, cable news flame-throwers and conspiracy mongers capitalized by denouncing scientists, experts and experienced government functionaries for sport and ratings. It’s fun to mock experts…until the global pandemic arrives, and we’re suddenly desperate for knowledge and competence (OK, the Earth really is round and warming…save us, Dr. Fauci!).
   • Perhaps Americans will again value serious experts (when not watching doctors Phil & Oz). Then again, those who deny basic science and clear data can deny anything or anyone, so call my optimism more cautious, Doc.
5. Less individualism
   • NYU Prof. Klinenberg thinks our trend of hyper-individualism and self-seeking behavior reverses with this pandemic (OK, but how does that help me?!), and we’ll become more communal, renewing investments in public (health) goods and services.
   • Maybe, Doc, but social media companies will continue telling their data harvesting sources and algorithmic manipulation targets (aka “customers”) that every uninformed thought, stupid act, and plate of grub is worth sharing with the entire planet. If our online surveillance economy incentivizes narcissism, it’ll remain tough for many to refocus on the common good.
6. Religious worship will look different
   • Director Sullivan observes that social distancing and quarantine already challenge what passes for ministry and fellowship in all religions.
   • Expect more online congregations, an opportunity for people to sample distant sermons, or practice more contemplative meditation by themselves. (Speaking of which, check out the Calm app for mindful, relaxing meditation and sleep stories, including Matthew McConaughey‘s Wonder, so chill and soothing at bedtime…all right, all right, all…zzzzz).
7. New forms of reform
   • Writer Mr. Rauch finds a lesson learned from the HIV/AIDS epidemic may apply to this pandemic: “plagues drive change,” including new organizations, networks, and knowledge bases that significantly change society.
   • We may see major changes in health care, with more emphasis on community and interdependence (a common theme in this list).

Tech

1. Fewer regulatory barriers to online tools
   • Editor-in-Chief Ms. Mangu-Ward is sure the pandemic will sweep away obsolete regulations hindering some parts of online living, particularly more telemedicine and online learning and homeschooling (also common themes).
   • Progress in these areas has been hindered by legacy players and slow/lobbied politicians…who fortunately won’t be able to return the genie to the bottle after the pandemic forces activities online.
   • Many companies will discover that more teleworking options don’t reduce productivity as much as they feared. Though virtual meetings are less efficient than F2F for most folks, many teleworkers save a long commute, not to mention time for showering, shaving, make-up, hair, and dressing (teleworking is pants optional).
2. Healthier digital lifestyle
   • MIT Prof. Turkle sees us rethinking our digitally created community (communal theme).
   • Famous musicians are streaming free live concerts, and inviting young hopefuls to send them performances. Temporarily free services and products (such as video streaming and audiobooks) are being provided online by corporations, entrepreneurs and yoga instructors.
   • Generosity and empathy take over the internet? (Not if online trolls and divisive pundits have any say!)
3. Boon to virtual reality (VR)
   • Vassar Pres. Bradley would like to see VR grow from isolated gaming experiences to programs promoting socialization and mental health of the isolated and quarantined.
   • Instead of battling imaginary foes, VR goggles could put you in a classroom or community gathering, or on a psychologist’s couch (where you slay them with your Elven magic sword!).

Health/Science

1. Rise of telemedicine
   • U of Penn Chair Dr. Emanuel sees remote medical office visits gaining widespread use and popularity as hospitals and clinics are overwhelmed by the pandemic.
   • Telemedicine benefits containment by keeping most people at home, away from critical care patients. (If it puts distance between me and my dentist, I’m in!)
2. Stronger family care
   • Director Poo hopes the crisis will increase political support for Universal Family Care, a single public federal fund/payer that provides child/elder/disabled care and paid family leave.
   • Eliminate the choice between health and financial ruin for Americans without safety nets.
3. Government becomes Big Pharma
   • Roosevelt VP Sterling argues the pandemic has exposed the failures of our costly, inefficient, market-based system for R&D and manufacturing of medicine that now takes ~18 months to develop a new vaccine.
   • Current emergencies create economic incentives, but not future ones. Private companies won’t/can’t prioritize countermeasure development for a health emergency until profitability is assured, typically well into the event when it is too late to prevent. (This reminds me of much cancer research funding targeting stage 4–seeking miraculous rescues from the edge of death–rather than stage 1, though early detection and response is much more effective.)
   • The fragility of supply chains for active pharmaceutical ingredients coupled with public outrage over patent abuses limiting availability of new treatments may create bipartisan consensus (Have you met Congress?!) for a government approach replacing ineffective market-based incentives for basic health needs.
4. Science reigns again
   • Exec Director Trauss (like others in this list) believes the declining credibility of truth and science in recent decades will reverse due to this pandemic.
   • Even science doubters/deniers will see the mass pain and death, not to mention economic impacts, due to coronavirus, and the necessity of experts to fight it.
   • Expect at least partial restoration of public respect for expertise. (If only vaccines cured stupid.)

Government

1. Congress can go virtual
   • MIT Prof. Zuckerman points out that we need Congress working through the crisis, but dispersed in relative isolation. Thus, Congresspeople can legislate remotely from home districts.
   • Virtual work may actually improve Congress critters by making them:
     • closer and more sensitive to their constituents
     • harder to lobby by DC lobbyists paying for DC parties/receptions
     • less conformist if local/home loyalties erode “Party first” fealty
   • Virtualization of the House of Reps would open the door to reapportionment and expansion, so that instead of each Rep representing ~770,000 constituents, we could get back to the 30,000:1 ratio mandated by the Founding Fathers.
2. Big government returns
   • U of Wash Prof. O’Mara notes that the pandemic is making government at all levels–local, state, and federal–more visible on a daily basis as we seek guidance and help.
   • Americans can now see the importance of government in our lives and health, as well as the deadly consequences of previous disinvestment in public infrastructure and dismissal of public expertise.
   • $2 trillion in relief/stimulus is definitely big government on an historic scale.
3. Government service regains cachet
   • U of Maryland Prof. Mason suggests the pandemic will finally kill the Reagan era idea that government is inherently bad, as it provides clear global evidence that functioning government is crucial for a healthy society.
   • Expect a rebirth of government service as a patriotic honor.
4. New civic federalism
   • Harvard Prof. Fung reminds us that the trauma of WWII led to a stronger American government and national solidarity, and thinks the pandemic may similarly spur civic federalism at local and state levels.
   • We may look back and see that state civic and private sector leaders, acting more quickly for the common good, handled the crisis better than national leaders.
   • A renewed sense of solidarity will enable us to better face enormous challenges such as our warming climate and growing economic inequality.
5. New rules
   • Filmmaker & Author Ms. Taylor observes that rules long declared by some to be impossible or impractical to change are being exposed as not so necessary after all, making this an opportunity to permanently change some rules to help millions of vulnerable Americans.
   • In a pandemic, the rules don’t apply or can be paused, e.g., foreclosures, evictions and cessation of utilities for late payments; debtor relief; paid sick leave for workers.
6. Revived trust in institutions
   • Author Mr. Kakutani hopes the pandemic will jolt Americans into valuing institutions essential to a functioning democracy and its ability to respond effectively to national (and global) crises such as this.
   • Government institutions need experts–not mere political loyalists–who base policy on reason, evidence-based science, and historical and geopolitical knowledge.
   • Lesson from 1918 flu pandemic that killed 50 million people: “Those in authority must retain the public’s trust…to distort nothing, to put the best face on nothing, to try to manipulate no one.”
7. Political uprising
   • CEO O’Neil predicts an “uprising”, an Occupy Wall Street 2.0, only bigger and madder (but with longer lasting impact?), will be sparked by the stark difference in medical and economic care provided to rich vs poor communities.
   • Political action and multi-trillion dollar projects are possible for urgent health and economic crises, not for those chronically disregarded for decades. (Short-sighted American politicians rarely think past the current crisis and next election.)

Elections

1. Electronic voting
   • Chairman Brotherton claims the pandemic will kill the limitations of polling places with old voting machines and dense gatherings of voters, paving the way for normalized electronic balloting, as a 2010 law already requires for military and overseas voters.
   • Adoption of secure, transparent, auditable, cost-effective voting from our mobile devices is more likely in the long term.
   • In the short term, a hybrid model uses proven technologies for mobile/at-home electronic voting that still generates paper ballots for tabulation and auditing.
2. Election Month replaces Day
   • Senior Fellow & Author Drutman reasons that if reducing the health risk of Election Day–and the typically senior poll workers–requires minimizing crowds and long lines, we should expect expanded early and mail-in voting, stretching Election Day into Month(s).
   • Like many pandemic-driven changes, this will become permanent once citizens experience the convenience of early/mail voting.
   • Bonus: convenience should increase voter turnout.
3. Voting by mail normalizes
   • VP Kosar & Director Ho (like Drutman above) argue voting by mail is a tested means to protect public health and not delay voting in primaries this spring/summer and the general election this fall.
   • Voters already receive registration cards and elections guides by mail.
   • States should mail every eligible voter a ballot and self-sealing envelope with prepaid postage, while preserving in-person voting options for those who need it. (I vote yea!)

Global Economy

1. Mass consumption restraints
   • Author Ms. Shah offers a scenario in which pandemic trauma forces society to accept restraints on our mass consumer culture in order to mitigate future contagions and climate disasters.
   • Human and industrial encroachment pushes animal habitats closer to ours, increasingly enabling animal microbes to cross over for epidemics in humans.
   • Expect other (relevant?) transformations, such as mainstreaming of universal basic income and mandatory paid sick leave, a mini baby-boom unleashed by mass quarantine, and secluded youth seeking communal life.
2. Stronger domestic supply chains
   • Roosevelt Dr. Tucker says we should expect more political, academic and diplomatic support for government playing a bigger role in creating supply chain redundancy that is resilient to shocks from pandemics, trade wars and protectionism.
   • Economist & Author Ms. Moyo similarly thinks corporations will have to reconsider the efficiencies and costs/benefits of globalized vs more robust domestic supply chains. Expect a shift to the latter to increase costs to corporations and consumers. (I’d pay a little more for goods if it meant stronger domestic supply chains. Remember when Made in China was Made in Taiwan…er…Made in Japan…uh…Made in USA?!)
3. Inequity gap widens
   • Harvard Prof. Skocpol notes that the pandemic will exacerbate the gap between the top 20% and the rest of Americans.
   • The wealthiest 1/5 are often married, highly educated couples in high-salary professions and broadband-ready homes that better accommodate telecommuting; they’ll continue earning steady incomes and order necessities for delivery at home.
   • The other 4/5, often in single-parent/income households and service industries that put them at greater risk of coronavirus contact, lack a financial cushion and may struggle with job loss and family burdens.

Lifestyle

1. Hunger for diversion
   • U of Penn Prof. Berry sees current trends accelerating toward more carefree entertainment, similar to the Roaring 20’s after WWI and the 1918-19 Spanish Flu. (You mean like the last decade since the Great Recession?!)
   • Surviving pandemic, relieved people will search for community and pleasure.
2. Less communal dining, more cooking
   • Yale Prof. Freedman suggests the trend of eating out more than in could reverse now that self-isolated people will do more cooking at home (or order delivery or take-out).
   • The closure of sit-down restaurants, many permanently, will make our eating less communal, at least in public.
3. Parks revival
   • Architecture Critic Ms. Lange still walks daily through the Brooklyn Bridge Park and Brooklyn Heights Promenade, and believes urban parks are big enough to accommodate both crowds and social distancing. (Even the green space running through my neighborhood is sufficiently big for Varya and me to walk daily while maintaining social distance.)
   • After pandemic, society will value big, natural spaces even more, perhaps increasing public investment in parks.
4. Change in “change”
   • Journalist Mr. Continetti sees societal, foundational paradigm shifts after the pandemic akin to after the Civil War, Great Depression and WWII.
   • As the global economy enters a recession that could deepen into depression, and the government invokes wartime powers against a global enemy, Americans must say goodbye to frivolity and change our notion of “change” (the only constant).
5. Habits break
   • Author Ms. Heffernan posits our fears of disease and autocracy will break our habits and programming enough to listen to our common sense and imaginations. People devoted to habits and lacking imagination are slow to recognize existential threats.
   • Our worldview will change after pandemic, and we’ll drop the more harmful, less useful habits. (Maybe, but can I keep my steak fajita habit?!)

Congrats, you made it to the end of one of my longer blog posts. Remember, it’s just a summary–you should see the original article! I hope you enjoyed perusing these predictions (from the socially distant safety of your home). Whether you agree or not, may they spark your own hope and imagination about future possibilities…after pandemic.